Roller Bearing Outlook 2025

Understanding the overall economy as it relates to the global bearing market is critical because it will ultimately determine how companies spend their money. In a down economy, companies go into protective mode, reducing inventories, headcount, R&D expenses and less willing to spend money on products on projects that have not turned into real purchase contracts. In a healthy economy, we see more R&D in heat treatment, lubrication, steel quality, etc. with headcount and resources willing to support long-term (and unpaid) projects. The 2025 outlook for the global and local bearing markets appears moderately positive overall with projected growth in global and domestic automotives sales, which are key indicators for global bearing sales. US vehicle sales are projected to hit 16.3M units, up from 16M in 2024. Additionally used vehicle sales are expected to hit the highest volume since 2021 at 20.1 million units. The driver of the growth is a general ease in affordability as auto loan rates decline, credit approval rates rise along with increased inventory spurring buyer incentives. This year EVs are expected to hit 25 percent of new vehicle sales; 10 percent of that being full EVs (no fuel engine)—up from 7.5 percent in 2024. The remaining 15 percent is spread among the various types of hybrids (this can include a simple 48v engine-mounted motor-generator unit). All of this is backed by a presumed strong economy with a GDP growth of 2.6 percent. The remaining 75 percent of sales will remain with internal combustion engines—the lowest percentage on record to date. (Ref. 5) Globally, the automotive forecast also remains strong, up 1.7 percent to 89.6M units in 2025. Slowing electric vehicle adoption rates somewhat moderates an otherwise cautious recovery growth. “The forecast outlook incorporates several factors, including improved supply, tariff impacts, still-high interest rates, affordability challenges, elevated new vehicle prices, uneven consumer confidence, energy price and supply concerns, risks in auto lending and the challenges of electrification. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to hit the ground running in 2025 with a range of policy priorities, including universal tariffs, deregulation, and wavering BEV support.” (Ref. 4) The global GDP growth projections are mostly unchanged from 2024 at 2.8 percent; still slow from the pre-COVID average of 3.2 percent. All this works into an anticipated bearing market growth of around 1 percent.  From the bearing manufacturers perspective, anticipated deregulation of the MPG standards, carbon credits and further potential steel tariffs are somewhat balanced by the already slowing EV transition. “GM CEO Mary Barra said this summer that the EV transition will take decades, Cadillac changed course on its plan to be all-electric by 2030, Audi said it’s “flexible” on an EV transition in July, Ford canceled plans for electric 3-row crossovers in August, Toyota scaled back its EV production target in September, and similar headlines keep coming.”

The bearing and larger automotive market are already under strict anti-dumping legislation along with the full “75 percent” USMCA rules since 2023; additional tariff rules would not make a substantial impact on these markets as they are already highly regulated industries. “On July 10, 2024, the Biden Administration issued two proclamations Proclamation No. 10783, 89 Fed. Reg. 57347 (July 10, 2024) and Proclamation No. 10782, 89 Fed. Reg. 57339 (July 10, 2024) concerning imports of steel and aluminum products from Mexico and imports of aluminum products from Russia, China, Belarus, and Iran. The proclamations allow additional import duties of 25 percent for steel and 10 percent for aluminum to be levied on these categories of merchandise under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.”